Fundraising Trends 2026: What Startups & SMEs Must Know - and How to Win

Fundraising Trends 2026: What Startups & SMEs Must Know – and How to Win

Verfasst von Micha Dallos

As the year 2025 slowly comes to an end, so does the fundraising year. What were the key trends of 2025, and what can we expect in 2026?

The 2025 fundraising landscape: key data points and implications

According to the analysis by KPMG and PitchBook, AI-related mega-rounds dominated the year 2025. Prominent examples include the data analytics and AI platform Databricks, which raised $1 billion at a post-money valuation of $100 billion (a 61.3% increase since September 2025 and its Series J in December 2024), and the AI company Anthropic, which raised $13 billion in its Series F round at a post-money valuation of $183 billion (nearly triple its previous Series E valuation).

As of September 2025, AI and machine learning (ML) companies accounted for 64.3% of the value of venture deals, despite representing only 37.5% of the deal count. During the same period, we also observed unicorns dominating venture deal values by 56.8%, accounting for only 2.7% of deals.

Furthermore, we can see that IPO activity is growing in the US and Asia. Notably, the US is continuing its four-year IPO exit high, while Asia is approaching its three-year high by the end of 2025. Several companies in the US have raised more than $1 billion in their US-based IPOs. These include the collaborative design firm Figma, which has a valuation of $68 billion and raised $1.2 billion; the digital asset exchange company Bullish, which has a valuation of $5.4 billion and raised $1.1 billion; and the Swedish fintech company Klarna, which has a valuation of $17 billion and raised $1.3 billion.

In terms of sector focus, the clear winners are AI, followed by defence technology, hardware/IT infrastructure (data centres, semiconductors), quantum computing and health technology. In contrast to the US, Europe attracted substantial investments in climate and energy.

On the other hand, the situation for early stage startups outside of AI is getting tougher, as investors are focusing more on profitability and favourable unit economics. PitchBook analysis showed that deal count for deals below 5 million fell from 57% in 2024 to approx. 50% in 2025. As a consequence, for the early-stage SaaS, consumer or similar: only the best companies could secure funds, due to stronger scrutiny on growth quality and on the path to profitability.

Fundraising Forecast 2026: What to expect on your fundraising journey?

We have combined our own fundraising expectations for 2026 with those of renowned sources, such as: KPMG, PitchBook, Crunchbase, McKinsey, and BCG. We dare to make the following forecasts with high confidence:

AI funding will remain strong in 2026

We expect mega-rounds for AI models to continue, as well as significant capital flows into AI infrastructure and verticalized AI solutions. However, we anticipate a significant shift: AI is transitioning from being just another application to becoming the underlying infrastructure that powers innovation itself. AI will act as a foundational amplifier for almost all other major technological trends. Analysis from McKinsey shows that AI is already accelerating progress in fields ranging from robotics and bioengineering to energy systems, unlocking new possibilities at their intersections. AI is the common thread that weaves disparate technologies together to create more powerful solutions.

Exit volumes (IPOs & M&A) continue to increase through 2026

Based on the available liquidity for late-stage AI investment, we expect to see more IPOs next year. However, there is a risk of the AI market overheating.

In addition to the main trends mentioned previously, we have a medium level of confidence in the following:

Compute economics become a new gating factor

Although investments in IT infrastructure will continue in 2026, analysts expect cloud providers to reduce their rate of capital spending growth. This could alter the unit economics for compute-heavy start-ups due to rising operating costs, which would hurt gross margins and burn rates.

Early-stage funding will remain very selective

Investors will take an even closer look at growth metrics and be more demanding regarding growth assumptions. This may lead to a problematic combination of effects: fundraising negotiations will take longer and the size of investments may be smaller than expected. Alternative funding sources will therefore become more important, such as corporate VCs, family offices and strategic investors.

Early-stage start-ups should address these new challenges by extending their financial runway. Alternative financing will play a stronger role. To extend the financial runway, revenue financing, venture debt and, in general, fund-based financing will be utilised. Depending on the geographical location, grants and R&D tax effects may play an increasingly important role in fundraising.

‘Boring’ is the ‘New Bold’, as investor sentiment shifts

Investors in smaller companies and those involved in large transactions are turning away from high-risk ventures and speculative growth. Instead, they are anchoring their strategies in the bedrock of business fundamentals. Resilience, the quality of growth and mastery of the business model are valued more highly than sheer momentum. A recent BCG survey found that European investors ranked ‘long-term organic revenue growth’ as their number one investment consideration (46%). This shift towards sustainable, internal growth signals a departure from strategies that depend on market hype or financial engineering.

How to win: fundraising strategies for 2026

A. Seed/pre-seed and fast-growing SMEs (with initial product / early revenue)

Focus: on quality growth and product-market fit, demonstrated by suitable unit economics (CAC/LTV and other business-model-specific KPIs), in combination with professional financial planning and control. Aim for a 12–18 month runway.

Financing mix: Angel syndicates + small specialist seed funds + accelerators + non-dilutive grants (e.g. R&D tax credits in the EU and Canada) combined with revenue-based financing for businesses with recurring revenue, or leasing/pay-per-use for asset-heavy business models.

Pitch to investors: by focusing on your business model specific KPIs, CAC payback, retention cohorts, clear path to next milestone (ARR, retention, gross margin), focus on the defensibility of the market position. Demonstrate financial controlling based on well designed financial plan.

Tactics: run an investor target list of 8–12 (including 2 strategic/CVCs), prepare a data room with cohort charts, unit economics and cap table scenarios, and have 1–2 meaningful pilot customers.

B. Series A / Early Growth / Fast Growing SMEs (Scaling Revenue)

Focus: on scaling repeatable revenue and gross margin expansion. Create a hiring plan for key roles (sales, operations and AI engineering). Demonstrate a path to 2–3x ARR growth with improving unit economics.

Fundraising mix: target growth VCs and strategic corporate investors, and consider venture debt and alternative financing options once revenue exceeds $2–5M ARR. Plan for smaller rounds in general and explore the possibility of bridge financing.

Pitch to investors by focusing on operational KPIs such as Net Dollar Retention, churn and CAC by channel. Present a 24-month cash plan as part of an integrated financial plan and offer an option for secondary liquidity for early employees and investors to maintain team morale. Prepare for stricter and longer due diligence.

C. Late stage / Pre-IPO / Growth Equity

Focus: path to profitability (or credible revenue multiple greater than market comparables), governance and audit readiness. For AI/hardware companies, this includes capital expenditure scheduling and supply chain risk mitigation.

Fundraising mix: large growth funds, crossover investors, strategic anchor investors and potential IPO, direct listing or private secondary investors.

Tactics: tighten financials (three-year forecast and sensitivity analysis) and hire a CFO with IPO or large M&A experience. Consider a staged secondary offering to provide some liquidity while retaining control.

Make your homework: Short list of KPIs investors now care most about

Please note that investors expect an integrated financial plan consisting of a profit and loss statement, a cash flow plan and a balance sheet, together with business model-specific KPIs and KPI-based controlling consistent with your financial plan. In addition, be prepared to present the following KPIs, which should be closely aligned to your business model:

Monthly / Annual Recurring Revenue (MRR / ARR) growth rate (3-, 6-, 12-month)
Net Dollar Retention (NDR) / Gross Dollar Retention
CAC, CAC payback months, LTV:CAC ration
Gross margin by product line (especially critical for SaaS/hardware hybrids)
Unit economics (for example contribution margin per customer)
Pipeline conversion rates and enterprise sales cycle length
Integrated financial plan (profit & loss statement, cash flow plan, plan balance sheet), KPI based constroling in place consistant with your financial plan
For AI: data availability, cost of compute per inference/training, production latency, safety/ops metrics

Fundraising in 2025 vs. 2026

Many of the trends observed in 2025 will continue into 2026—most notably the dominance of AI investments, capital concentration around category leaders, the resurgence of late-stage funding, selective early-stage deployment, and a healthier exit environment. But 2026 will also introduce shifts that founders should treat as structurally new: a slowdown in hyperscaler and IT infrastructure capex growth, which will put upward pressure on compute costs; the rise of even larger VC mega-funds concentrating capital at the top; increased government and national-security–driven investment vehicles; more mature secondary markets; and rapid growth of alternative and non-dilutive financing structures. These developments will materially affect unit economics, valuation dynamics, and fundraising strategies.

From an operational perspective, companies must prepare for the new scaling bottlenecks. Explosive demand for compute-intensive workloads—from generative AI to robotics, automation, simulations and immersive environments—is testing global infrastructure limits. Power-constrained data centres, network capacity pressures, escalating energy costs and supply-chain fragilities are now strategic risks. Beyond technical architecture, founders must navigate labour shortages, permitting delays, local grid constraints and tightening regulatory frameworks. Scaling in 2026 therefore requires competency not only in engineering and design, but also in talent acquisition, compliance management, public-sector engagement and execution under real-world constraints.

Finally, as AI transitions from a tool to an omni-directional capability layer, every business—startup or enterprise—must shift its mindset. The right question is no longer “What is our AI strategy?” but “How will AI rewire our entire operating model, revenue engine and cost structure?” AI is becoming the foundational substrate of competitive advantage, shaping product development, customer interaction, infrastructure decisions and organizational design. Founders who embrace this shift early will be the ones who raise capital on favourable terms and build durable category leadership in the years ahead.

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